Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
